[TNixon]

Are you a COMPLETE goddamned idiot jay_shark? Or just pretending?

Because this:

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Jason's solution computes the probability of a downswing of size b given time t which is not necessarily 0 .

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Is exactly what we want here, where t is equal to a number of hands (or, more specifically, 100s of hands, since winrates and std devs are measured per 100 hands).

I mimicked this section of jason's post:

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where M = E[T]. You have played 163,293 hands, so you would like to know p = P(T < 1632.93), the probability that you would have a 360BB downswing in your first 163,293 hands. Using the above estimate for this probability, here are some numbers.

m = 1.95 and s = 16 ==> p = 0.187
m = 1.95 and s = 18 ==> p = 0.418
m = 1.50 and s = 18 ==> p = 0.616

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Exactly, and verified that I got the formula into excel correctly by plugging those numbers in (along with 1632 as t, and 360BB as b) and getting those exact same probabilities.

The numbers I've given here were from the same damn formula, and mean the same damn thing, and you absolutely have to be a complete retard to STILL be confused about what is going on here. If you disagree with the formula's applicability for the question at hand, feel free to say so. (If you do, you'll only further prove that you have absolutely no clue about what's actually being discussed here, but please, be my guest). If you feel I've misapplied the formula, then feel free to say so as well. But you better be prepared to defend that statement with a "correct" application, and numbers different from what I just gave.

For hell's sake.

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What I've learned after all this is that you're one of the biggest idiot I know .

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What I have learned from this is that you are a far bigger idiot than I ever even imagined was POSSIBLE.

STFU monkey.