Re: Swings in NLCASH
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My winrate for 31k(25 days) hands is 8.19. My S.D. is 99.62 big bets/100 hands. Usually I'm in good vs villains' hands. but lots of suck outs. I play mostly agro's(wannabee's and total fish). The biggest downswing I've had was about 9-12 buy-ins(btu there were 2-3 mistakes for stacks), also I could've had S.D. 150bb/100, if played more agro. So I feel that 20 buy-in swings is possible once a month (considering how bad I was running sometime, and it COULD'VE BEEN even worse), and 30 buy-ins downswings once in a quarter(playing 30K hands a month). But if to play agro-fish and maniacs more nitty, then it's very possible to not go trough such swings at all with WR of 8ptbb/100.
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With the statistics you gave for winrate and std dev, it would seem you are quite correct in figuring on at *least* one of these a month. Extrapolating your hand count to 40k for a month gives an 88% chance of having at least one.
Bumping the std. dev to 150 makes it a near-certainty. (99.9%)
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