Re: This is probably ridiculous
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Alright, I know everyone is going to say the same thing for this hand, but I figured I would throw it out there to see if there is anyone who sais different. I am wondering if there is ever an ok situation to fold bottom set.
<font color="red">Live 1/2 NL. I have $300 behind me.
Effective stacks of villains in hands are:
CO: $450
UTG+1: $600. </font>
PF: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="blue"> I open limp UTG. UTG+1 makes it 12. CO calls. I call as well. </font>
<font color="red">Pot: $39 </font>
Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="blue"> I donk into the preflop raiser for 25. He pauses, raising to 75. The CO pseudo looks concerned, and doesn't really look displeased in raising it to 175. </font>
At this point its back to me. There is $315 in the pot, and I have about $250 left. I am pretty sure one of the players has a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I find it really hard to put the CO on a hand like JJ since he flat calls PF. It really feels like I'm up against Nut flush draw and top Set. I obviously insta-pushed, but I was pretty sure I was drawing pretty thin here.
Anyone ever fold with this kind of action in front? I know, we have a set. But seriously, if we take the time to think about this innocent flop, what are they going crazy about on this board besides hands I listed?
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Guh... the idea of folding a set is icky, but you've definitely got one that's worth thinking about. Live 1/2NL players don't really bluff, like, ever. OTOH, they do over-defend their preflop raises, and they love play overpairs by slowplaying preflop and overplaying postflop. My guess on their hand ranges are something like...
UTG+1: {JJ-AA,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs}
CO: {77,JJ-AA}
and you're almost 50% against that range.
EDIT: You're still 44% if I pull AA completely out of CO's range, which should account for him re-raising QQ-AA preflop sometimes.
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