Re: Turn plan
[ QUOTE ]
post flop he is straightforward and never check-raises. When he bets he has something and many times it is very good; straight, two pair, set etc.
[/ QUOTE ]
With this particular read, I think even with 14:1 immediate and 16:1 implied you can fold to the SB 3-bet. You would have to be pretty sure he had two pair quite often (think back: does he complete every time in the SB with this many limpers, even with a hand as ugly as 52o or 62o?). You're very likely to be drawing to two runners.
Let's run the numbers with the only hands he could hold with a flop 3-bet according to your read:
Set combos: 7
Straight combos: 16
Two pair combos: 21
You are 23:21 to be drawing to runners. This could be weighted more to your disadvantage if you read that SB is capable of folding the SB in a limped pot instead of completing with any two.
And with all the action in the field, you have to wonder if some of those outs are out there.
Oh, and as played definitely fold the turn.
Garland
|