[iheartponeez]

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By my count he has 7.50 left in a 5.75 pot, so 1.3-ish psb.

I assume that if he calls he almost never has a pocket pair better than sevens, since he would just shove. If we put his range on unpaired cards higher than 7 and you shove every flop he has to win 36% of the time to break even. Since he only makes a pair about 33% of the time I think this should be marginally +EV for you even if he always calls. Given that I doubt he will call a flop shove with 100% of his calling range I think this should be fine.

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But he's probably only going to call you from way ahead, if he's got 2 cards higher than 7 and won't call without a pair (and who is putting 7.50 into a 5 pot without even a pair?)

That means that 66% of the time you make 2.50, while 33% of the time you lose 10, +/- for suckouts/when you hit a set and he hits a pair/etc.

That appears to be -EV, maybe the times you steal the blinds or he calls with nothing make up for it, but if he's not just shoving his stack into the middle on nothing, this looks bad.

What am I seeing incorrectly?