[bellatrix]

[ QUOTE ]


1. c/c,c/c,c/c line - EV = (13.5 * 0.45) - 5 = 1.075 sb.

2. c/c,c/c,b/f line - EV = (17.5 * 0.45) - 5 = 2.875 sb.

Obviously, the above EV calculation for the b/f river line, is assuming that your opponent will not raise your river bet as a bluff.



[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, so you are assuming villain will ALWAYS check on the river in this calculation? Also, the second case is too optimistic, as you are assuming the villain will always just call.

First case, villain should keep on betting most flops 50% of time...

EV = (15.5 * 0.45) - 5 = 1.975 SB

Second case, villain raises 20% of the time, calls otherwise.

EV = 0.8 (17.5 * 0.45) + 0.2 * (0) - 5 = 1.3 SB

----

I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I just think that you can't make these math calculations like you know what's gonna happen and you have to account for everything. Personally, I think you can't say anything about our action on the river, because we don't know what the other cards are and as it stands either one is perfectly viable.

Now for the actual question of calling down or c/r flop... mhmmm... eeehmmmm, mmmmm. I guess I defer to others or say: it depends! it's gotta be close, though.