[mikeJ]

Hand 1: I don't think 2-barreling or 3-barreling will end up being profitable. It's uncertain whether villain will fold Kx to a 3-barrel and 9x to a 2 barrel.

Hand 2: Unless you think he might c/r bluff you on turn, I'd just vbet turn/river. Your description of villain would indicate you may get two streets of value from a 66/7x/Qx type hand. You lose the ~same amount vs. Ax, cause you're calling a river lead, but bet/folding here. Flop check for pot control / inducing bluffs on turn / preventing yourself from getting c/r bluffed.

Just to put some #'s on 3-barreling in Hand 1. Suppose he has Kx and he will rarely fold to a 2-barrel, how often do you need him to fold river?

If you bet 3/5 pot on turn (which we're going to assume villain ~always calls), and your river bet is twice the size of your turn bet, then you're risking 9 to win 8, or you need your 3rd barrel to succeed 9 out of 17 times, or roughly <u>53% </u> of the time. Of course, this is just a rough number, as I've ignored when his Kx makes two pair/trips (which would make the actual required success rate higher), there are probably better bet sizes you can choose, and we assumed he is ~rarely folding to a 2 barrel when there might've been a 10% chance he does.

Lastly, you need to turn a profit on your two barrel vs. 9x and/or your 3 barrel vs. Kx to cover what you lose when villain has two pair/set on turn and ~never folds to turn/river bets.