[Speedlimits]

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LOL.

The only difference between c/r and c/c shove is that you fold out draws when they miss on the turn. But if he has overs and a draw there is a 1 in 3 chance he makes a pair or completes his draw on the turn.

So on the turn, there is a 33% chance he's made his draw or made the best hand. Now obviously, he won't necessarily know his hand is good if he pairs his random overs in this situation, but he'll either A) call because your line is weird and he is a station, or B) call because he thinks he has odds w/ a combo draw.

This guy is calling with too wide a range preflop, so punish him by cbetting. Don't overthink things.

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1 in 3 chance? Those odds are WAY off. Try more like 5-6outs on one street which is approximately ~10-12%.

Even giving you the benefit of the doubt and saying he has something like QJ he still ONLY has 10 outs which is like 21%. Not even close to 33%..

This is a horrible board to c-bet on as I just stated. My range misses this board completely so a c-bet is going to get looked up at a higher frequency.

It has nothing to do with overthinking, it has to do with hand ranges.