villain here is 23/13/3 but despite these stats is a poor player.
his fold to cbet is <40% and my reads on him are that he 3 bets light, pulls a lot of moves and is generally just a pretty poor player.
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter
BTN: $65.65
SB: $58.40
Hero (BB): $53.50
UTG: $134.55
Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $1.75</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.50</font>, BTN calls $3.75
Flop: ($11.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, BTN calls $8
Turn: ($27.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
I think this turn is the crux point - he looks people up light on the flop obv and puts moves on people so i think if i check this turn to him he is likely to bet a very large part of his range - obv i am scared of ak but how many other likely holdings could he have? the FD is v unlikely - is he calling a 3 bet with 910 or aj? hes a bad player but he is a tight player nonetheless and i think all these are very small parts of his range. also once we crai he may well call with a bare Ks or make a desperation call which means we extract even more when we are ahead.
i think its dead close - what you think?