Re: Bad bad turn
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Yeah, thanks guys. This is pretty much what I figured out at the table, but I figured I'd better have someone else take a look. I checked the turn. On my good days, I probably fold this right there, but in this case I called down.
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It's hard to believe that folding the turn is correct.
First you have two outs and sometimes four. On the actual hand your four outs make it slightly +EV to call.
Second when you have the best hand you have a good chance of getting a free showdown because the button has the initiative and he isn't likely to bet the river with a showable hand like 88.
The combined equity from outs and free showdowns makes this a really easy turn call.
Should you call the river? That's a harder question but I wouldn't focus on UTG+1 very much. The chance that he can beat AA after playing the hand this way is small. I'm more inclined to see his river call as dead money rather than an "overcall" issue.
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