Re: When does EV apply? When does it not?
Hi rob, what you're thinking of is risk aversion.
Generally poker players should avoid situations where they would have risk aversion. E.g. you shouldn't be playing with your rent money, because u really can't afford to lose - and therefore cannot play proper.
Making the final table of WSOP or something of that sorts might be a once in a career chance. If that is the case, then risk aversion here cannot really be helped. Such a player migh prefer to lock-in a reasonable payout, rather than putting themselves in a better position to win it all - at the risk of losing everything.
For instance, I'll give you two bets you could take.
Bet 1 gives you a 60% chance of making $10 million dollars, and a 40% chance you make nothing.
Bet 2 gives you $5 million with 100% certainty.
You can only choose to take one bet, and you have no expectation of receiving future opportunities of this caliber. Which bet do you choose?
The average payout of bet 1 is 6 million, though I think the vast majority of us would choose bet 2 and lock-in the 5 million.
----_Dirty&Litigious_----
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