Re: A7ss flops NFD + OESD...
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And of course, you can argue that 1 extra SB at 55% equity is worth a hell of a lot more than 1 extra SB at 34% equity, which is what we're paying if we flat call the flop 3bet & call a big bet when we brick the turn (that's giving villain AA). Not to mention that capping the flop actually does a better job of disguising our hand than 3betting & calling, especially if we end up hitting on the river vs. the turn.
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You could argue that, but this happens 80% of the time. So for that 80% you're talking about a 16% equity deficit on 1 SB, but then 20% of the time winning a full SB to compensate for it. It comes out basically the same.
The metagame argument is fine, and I don't dispute the potential there. But if I had a set here, I'd be calling and looking to pop the turn, and I see no reason for my made hands and big draws to be played differently.
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