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Old 10-30-2007, 05:24 PM
Dunkman Dunkman is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Bubbling FTs
Posts: 2,584
Default Re: am i missing something?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not very happy about a PF push.

Button limped in, which is either very weak or a trap for SB. SB showed complete and utter weakness by just completing.

There's no way button is going away for another 4.3 BB, when the pot is offering him close to 2:1 (antes?) and he's got 30+ BB behind.

You really have no reason at this point to seek out a race with 98o.

Especially in these low limit tourneys I'm never in a hurry to commit my last 4 BBs.

You just paid the big blind, so you have a whole round to catch a stronger hand - or at least get it first in - in position. And if you should pick up a real hand you're almost 100% sure to be paid off (which I think your current experience strongly emphasizes).

Finally, it really makes no difference for you whether button calls you with J7s, if SB calls you with a pair of deuces or what have you - you're attempting a raw bluff without having shown any strengh pre, before you've seen all players react to the flop, and in a micro limit donkament.

Generally that's a poor strategy.

I hope you really are posting to learn something about how other micro limit players think (if not you're no different from them).

They think: Hey, there's chips in the pot, I wanna be part of the fun!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate to be like this, but your analysis is all wrong. First, we do have some pretty substantial FE, especially against the button. You see, if we shove, the button is in a bit of a spot. If he just calls, he risks a shove from the SB, who is going to face a spot where he can't really flat call your raise. Sure, sometimes he could fold, but the threat of him shoving over the top is very real, since at that point the pot will be larger than his stack. Additionally, the button may not be too keen on raising to isolate with what is almost certainly a marginal/weak hand. So, a very decent % of the time, the button will fold, and sometimes the SB will call, but sometimes he completed with crap and will let it go.

Also, we have 5.3 BBs, what better spot are we waiting for? They're both coming along only very rarely, so we'll have our BB dead in the middle, one of their's, and the antes, will means that even with no FE we're shoving 4.2 ish BB to win like 7.2 which is over 1.7:1, and that's pretty compelling. Factor in FE (I'd say at least 20%) and this becomes a terrific spot for a 5 BB stack.

Finally, wouldn't it be nice to actually have some chips in case we get a real hand? I mean, if we fold here, then the next 2 hands, and then pick up AA in the CO we'll have a whopping 3.5 BBs left, and doubling up will do little more than buy us another orbit. We need to gamble to get some chips for a run at the FT, and although this spot isn't perfect, it's plenty good enough and I'd cheerfully get my chips in here.
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