Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
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Exactly. Trying to PREDICT the past. Not merely describe it. Thus, EV. Using the limited data that we have from the past, predict what would happen in, say, 100 iterations of the past. IOW, what is the EV of each decision/player. Exactly the opposite of all the things you just said.
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This phrase has no meaning to me, "100 iterations of the past". It is not well-defined. The past happened once. If we iterated it 100 times we would get the same outcome 100 times.
Anyway, I think you kind of get my point, you just disagree. My only goal here is to point out that it's a weird thing we do, pretend we can go back in time and re-roll some dice of our choosing, but not others.
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