Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
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A player who hits 250 homeruns in a season but doesn't win a championship can not go back and argue that his 250 homeruns is more likely to have won his team a championship, unless he has a time machine.
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Sure he can. It should be rather obvious that hitting 250 home runs is more likely to win a championship than striking out every time.
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The probability of past events is 1.0. You can't say someone is more likely to have won a championship when he didn't win a championship. The probability of him not having won a championship is 100%. Is this point really over people's heads?
Many people who discuss "greatest" are not trying to predict the future. They are trying to predict the past.
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