[Dima2000123]

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When Phil makes the insurance bet at the end, he says he's insuring against a J or 9, giving Eli 8 wins out of 44 and him 6. He uses these numbers to make the deal, saying that he is insuring against a J or 9 hitting the river. Then, when river comes Q, he says, "chop pot no one pays insurance". It seems like with the specific "no J no 9" bet he made he should have lost the insurance bet and had to pay, regardless of the fact that the pot was chopped.

Or am I wrong?

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I thought so as well. Phil was definitely counting the queens when he was (trying to) calculate the odds.