[schwza]

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Ive never worked out the math but I fold TT and AQ, call JJ

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His range has to be really tight for this to be good. I'd say SS pushes at least AJo/ATs/77, which makes 99 a call

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are you assuming that utg and bb fold? 99 is only 47% against that range. i haven't done the math, but i guess if you assume utg and bb fold then enough dead money in the pot to call.

bb's pfr % is 22%. that means he's probably raising around 18%. (for most good players there's a bigger spread between utg pfr and overall pfr but utg probably does not understand position that well).

TT-AA make up 2.3% of the total hand range, so roughly .023/.18 = 13% of the time utg will have TT+. when that happens it's a bad problem for us, because if utg pushes we're pretty pc'ed and we have to call. (if we fold to a utg push, then it's a bad problem if he pushes AK).

there's also the same 2.3% chance that bb was dealt TT+, plus some change of AK and whatever he's going to want to get involved with.

so being 47% against the shorty's pushing range is not nearly enough. i'd say off the top of my head we'd need to be at least something like 55%. if we go with ATs/AJo/77 then that's JJ (57%) or AKs (55%).