Re: standard overs situation
Its close and depends on his capping range. His range is probably fairly tight here from UTG+1. I agree with ggb that for meta it is better to call turn, but i don't think you have quite enough outs.
Basically the river has 3 possibilities.
You hit J and win more than 1 bet on average.
You hit Q/K and probably come out pretty close to even EV.
You miss and fold.
In reality I think we should look at these situations like we have 4 outs since we don't know if a K or a Q are good and will be calling on both. So we have 4 outs to the str8, 6 outs to a pair we don't know is good, and 36 cards we fold on.
I think if capper is the button or CO than you can probably peel since your pair outs are good more often.
I think your pair outs being good more often is more important than winning more bets on a J vs over pairs.
I'm too lazy to stove his range vs yours here, but thats basically what it comes down to.
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