Re: When does EV apply? When does it not?
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It's always right to take the most +EV course in any action. Even if this action occours only once. Provided you have enough money to handle the losses.
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I don't agree with this, and I think most gambling experts would not either. In Theory of Poker (as well as other books of his, like Sklansky on Poker), Sklansky talks about reasons not to take +ev bets. These include
* Losing this bet would preclude you from making a more +ev bet later
* The average expected EV is not great enough for you to risk ruin (why doesn't every gambler play at the highest stakes game where he is +ev? Because this would have unacceptable ROR)
* There are others I don't remember.
This example falls into the first category... taking a slightly +ev situation late in a tournament might prevent you from making a wildly +ev bet in the near future.
But really this is what ICM is for, determining whether a move is worth it in terms of real $, not tournament chips.
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