[rwperu34]

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Atlanta raped this trade

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Detroit gains more championship equity than Atlanta.

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Atlanta improved much more than Detroit, and as constructed right now I'd say the Braves are better favs than the Tigers to make the playoffs.

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No, they didn't. Atlanta will take a small downgrade at short for a small upgrade at the #5 starter with a bunch of risk and save a few $$$$ plus a potential trading chip. That's all well and good and a nice gain, but Detroit gave up nothing for a huge upgrade at SS. Even if the money saved nets them Glavine, which is the assumption even though I think it's all going to Teixeira, Detroit still comes out better. This deal will not pay dividends for Atlanta until they realize the value of Hernandez which is at least two years away and carries a ton of risk and will most likely be via a trade. With Detroit being on the fringe of the playoffs, the upgrade to Renteria is monumental.

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The problem is the Tigers need more of a makeover to be the fourth-best team in the AL next year. The Indians, Red Sox, Yankees and Angels are all clearly better than the Tigers. Outside of that the Tigers are the clear favorite, but the Blue Jays, Twins, and even the A's -- basically, whoever has the best offseason -- also have the potential to be very decent teams.

Escobar (.289 EqA) + Jurrjens (LAIM for cheap) > Renteria + replacement-level SP or worse. Combined with the money and flexibility saved (5 years of cheap league-average minimum, likely better production from two key positions) it's a sick deal.

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Atlanta has plenty of prospects that are only slightly behind Jurrjens and at the same level in the system and there is no way Escobar is as good as Renteria. The max Atlanta's pitching could gain from this deal for 2008 is two wins, and it's likely much less than that (like close to zero).

Renteria alone will be worth three wins to the Tigers, and that's assuming they could get the best shortstop available (the tough and gritty David Eckstien). Detroit's top 4 is fairly set with Verlander, Bonderman, Miller, and Rogers (assuming he doesn't retire). That's also assuming that they trade Nate Robertson. If they hold onto Robertson, Jurrjens would have been the proverbial sixth starter, and the Tigers, while thin, do have people who can perform at replacement level with a little bit of upside. It's nice to have the depth, but the overall effect of losing Jurrjens on the Tigers is minimal, and in fact is less than the Braves going from Renteria to Escobar.

Where Atlanta is going to kick ass in this deal is in the future, assuming Jurrjens pans out and Hernandez is able to at least mantain his value as he climbs the orginazational ladder.