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Old 10-29-2007, 11:59 PM
tyler_cracker tyler_cracker is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,661
Default Re: if it helps, i also have an overcard...

i think this spot is close. a two-card flush draw is a strong hand as flush-over-flush is somewhat rare. however, it's hard to imagine a lot of hands that have hit this flop that haven't hit it hard. one of the aggressors probably has a hand like A7 or 88, but are all of them going nuts with 1-pair hands? i'm not sure if these villains are loose enough to have two pair, as they would have had to limp 74/72/42. if someone has a bigger flush draw, i'm drawing nearly dead. if someone has a set, that cuts into my equity significantly[**].

despite all the negatives, the pot is getting big and many things are uncertain, so i chose to call. further action in my next post, but i'm interested in further discussion about the flop decision.











[**] just to get an idea, compare:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3850368
pokenum -h 9c 6c - 4d 4s - ad 7d - tc ts -- 7c 4h 2c
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7c 2c 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 6c 201 24.51 619 75.49 0 0.00 0.245
4s 4d 526 64.15 294 35.85 0 0.00 0.641
Ad 7d 16 1.95 804 98.05 0 0.00 0.020
Ts Tc 77 9.39 743 90.61 0 0.00 0.094

with the same situation where the set becomes a big overpair:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=3850381
pokenum -h 9c 6c - kd ks - ad 7d - tc ts -- 7c 4h 2c
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7c 2c 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 6c 285 34.76 535 65.24 0 0.00 0.348
Ks Kd 336 40.98 484 59.02 0 0.00 0.410
Ad 7d 116 14.15 704 85.85 0 0.00 0.141
Ts Tc 83 10.12 737 89.88 0 0.00 0.101
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