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Old 10-29-2007, 07:56 PM
MoonOrb MoonOrb is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Somewhere in the South Pacific
Posts: 75
Default Re: Best possible drawing hands

Two thngs.

First, 6 of your outs aren't outs to someone holding a J. So you might want to make the flop JsTs2h or something. Also, with the board paired, there will be as many as ten cards that make a full house by the river, so 7 of your flush outs and all of your straight outs will dry up as well. All I'm saying is that if your goal is to think of the combination of a hand and flop with the most possible outs that is not yet a made hand, don't pair the board. It discounts too many of your outs because of all of the redraws and the possibility a K or Q won't win.

Second thing is that your hand is a favorite here to win by the river even if you're not a favorite on each street. You get 21 outs twice, so on the turn you're (21/47) to improve and (21/46) on the river. There will be a million people here who understand this better than I do, but I think you end up being better than a 2 to 1 favorite against, say, a lower pocket pair like 88 or something.

And I realize my post isn't too precise, but the moral of mine is that a made hand on the flop isn't always better than a drawing hand.

Oh, one other thing--this is even more true when the pot is multiway. I'm assuming for the sake of simplicity that this is heads up. And by "better," I think you mean which hand will win the most pots when you might want to consider which hand will win the most bets.
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