Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
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Here's the problem with taking VA Tech, they have shown no ability to throw the ball, which is where GA Techs defensive weakness lies. In addition GA Tech is better rested, at home, and not coming off a devastating loss with a team full of head cases and crappy QBs.
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Bingo. Georgia Tech's rush defense is one of the best in the country and their secondary is the big weakness on the defensive side of the ball. Matt Ryan lit them up, but Virginia Tech doesn't an accurate enough QB to burn them.
Also, you can't just look at Dwyer's two worst games and evaluate him that way. The game before that, he ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards against Virginia and he's a young back that's continually improving. He's no Tashard Choice, but the dropoff's a lot less than you're making it out to be. Also, Rashaun Grant is playing against Virginia Tech, he missed some practices, but he's expected to be ready to go by game day.
The way I'd cap this game is overall talent: +0.5 for Georgia Tech, home advantage on a Thursday night: +3.5, Choice injury: -1.5, matchups: +3, letdown for VT after losing last week +1.5. That would leave Georgia Tech as a 7 point favorite. I think you can bring that down a little bit, since it will be a low-scoring game, but I still think GT should be getting at least 4 points here and probably 5. All these people who are saying "the wrong team's getting the points" haven't followed ACC football closely at all this year.
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