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trends dont last forever, thats why theyre called trends and why theyre even possible. sheessh.

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isnt it more likely that interest rates will decrease?

isnt it more likely that the gov will keep spending more than it takes in?

if this is the case, why is the dollar going to recover? you can't just say its going to go up because it is down. that doesn't make any sense.

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currencies aren't a 1 way trade. the dollar could TANK but if the euro tanks by more then long the dollar/euro would be a good bet.

OP is saying that after the fed cuts again, it is not likely to be much more cutting and that the ECB will be next to cut. since interest rate diffs & growth diffs make up the vast majority of currency excess returns, havnig the US stay steady after the next cut while the ECB lowers rates means the dollar will "bottom out" and then reverse since the interest rate diff will decrease.

i, however, don't think the ECB will be lowering rates anytime in the immediate future with germany powering away as it has (and its CPI still ticking up).

thats why i think this bet is far better on the pound than the euro. also, the pound has further to fall in terms of interest rates without being inflationary once the credit bubble fails to continually increase gdp at the rate of the recent past.

Barron