[zipppy]

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I think that folding this preflop is horrible IMO.

Its ~ 5:1 presently on your call. Its very reasonable that you can expect to collect at least 4 BB after the flop if you hit your set, making it a +EV situation.

Your opponents are not going to fold an overpair on the flop in a 4-8 game. Its also likely that they'll get a least 1 raise in there, especially if the flop is non-threatening ( ie.Q92, or K94).

This is a hand where you could collect a big pot if you hit, as you put your opponents on big hands and they're likely to get to the river on alot of boards.

There is more than enough implied odds to call here. The chance that it will be capped behind you, it reduces your odds to almost 4:1, which is still +EV.

for this not to be +EV, both your opponents would have to fold on the turn, and if that is the case, you should be happy to call and bluff them off their overpair.

mark

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one issue I take with this analysis is that you are ignoring the times you hit a set and still lose. while this happens very infrequently, when it does happen you lose a lot of chips.

in your last paragraph you justify playing this hand in a situation where it is -EV. this is a sign that you are trying too hard to justify playing this hand. I'm not saying it's -EV to play this hand, i'm just saying you don't always have implied odds just because you have a pocket pair.

zip