[MCS]

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10-teamers become better than 4-teamers at about 52.1%, but your EV is -26% of your bet at that point.


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0.535130845 is the probability at which the expectation between 4- and 10-teamers is equal, not 0.521.

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I agree my number before was wrong, but I'm still not getting the same answer as you. This is the equation I'm solving:

10*(p^4) = 300*(p^10) + 20*10*(p^9*(1-p))

Where am I going wrong?