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Old 10-29-2007, 07:32 AM
Paxinor Paxinor is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 87
Default Re: Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50

allright, i analyzed 650k full tilt poker pokerhands (about 3,5 mio distributed hands) with hold'em manager private beta.

i only focused on 4betpush situations and limp reraises of fullstack players in early position on a 6 max table:

against an unknown only 15% of all the 4betpushhands are aces. (cardremovaladjusted for Kings). so there is no no no way you can ever fold aces against an unknown if he 4betpushes you on NL50 (samplesize is 112 pushinghands)

i did another query that only analyzed full stack player early position with an preflopraise of less than 8% over 200 + hands.
only 24% of the hands were Aces that were 4betpushed fullstack. (cardremoval adjusted). (samplesize 24 pushinghands)

i also looked at limpreraised hands that were finaly pushed and the limpreraisers had less than 8% preflopraise. samplesize is 14 hands and 45% of them were aces.

conclusions: 4betpushes happen rarely from tight players and are quite loose. (instacall with KK)

limpreraises from tight players happen even less often from tight players but you are close on beeing able to fold.

there will never be a situation where you can fold Kings for 100 BB against an unknown NL50 player

even if you know he is tight, you cannot fold in most situations.

the only situation where you should at least consider a fold is against an full stack early very thight limpreraiser

but this will most likely never happen to you before you move up...
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