[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the input..

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if he does have K2-KJ/A2-AJ (3 outs) or 22-66 (2 outs), he is drawing incorrectly from a mathematical standpoint calling the bet on the flop (assuming I am firing another bullet on the turn that is correctly sized). I am offering him pot odds of 3.25:1 on the flop and I believe he needs to be getting 14.7:1 (3 outs) and 22.5:1 (2 outs) to try and hit his card on the turn. I understand the importance of "protecting your hand," but I also hate losing potential value (also keep in mind that he had enough chips to give me a very healthy lead).

[/ QUOTE ]

But you also pretty much priced in flush and straight draws. They don't need much in implied odds to take one off. I suppose T8 is an unlikely holding but Ahxh is the kind of hand fishes love to call raises with. And dude, they don't care about not having the odds to peel one with a pair! They put you on AK, call the cbet and if you check the turn, they are laughing.

Also, the Beluga Theorem is almost never wrong. If they C/R you on the turn, your pair is no good. I'd expect to be shown a 9 here an awful lot of the time. AJ/KJ not so much. JT sometimes. A fold would be very MUBSy though. I'm not sure I could do it with all undercards on the board.

I'm not sure I worry so much about value here. You have a decent stack. I'd prefer to build a pot with the fish who wants to gambool and not worry too much about the guy who would have paid a couple of hundy to see the turn.