Re: Your action?
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Sorry I'm not sure to understand. My point is
1) If I bet turn and play good poker after, I win more money than if the turn was check check and the river check check UI.
2) If I check the turn, even if he's betting 100% of his range on a UI river, I win less money than if the turn was check check and the river check check UI.
Where am I wrong ?
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Your EV calculations are really only relevant if this is the last action possible in the hand (ie. your opponent only has 1 more bet)
It doesn't take into account the effects a set, straight or flush check-raising you on the Turn has on the EV of your bet.
It doesn't take into account the effect of you drawing out on a middling 1 pair hand that may or may not have folded to your Turn bet.
etc.
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