Re: NL25 - 78s
I think the keys here are what is the % fold for UTG, what will his action be on the turn if we whiff, and how often can he get away if we hit.
I think he folds here ~50% and that is probably the main difference in our lines. No reads so the rest of it is just guessing what he does on average. If I call flop I may c/f turn...if he pushes or pots it (same thing really) but he'll only do that a % of the time.
I don't think there's likely to be a big EV difference in the 2 lines...but I do dislike the "consensus" of a standard line with no thought to the alternatives.
If we were in position on UTG this would be a clear call though IMO.
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