[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
p = Pr(Bakes folds to shove) = % of range he's raise/folding with

q = equity against Bakes' calling range

cEV = 4890p + 8680q - 8680pq - 4090

cEV(fold) = 0, not -200

So for given calling ranges of Bakes, I calculated how wide Bakes has to be opening (at least) for shoving TT to be +cEV:

Calling Range-------Q-------------Opening Range

{JJ+,AK}------------0.3365--------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{TT+,AK}------------0.34052-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{99+,AK}------------0.40173-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+}
{88+,AK}------------0.44866-------{77+,AKo,AJs+}
{JJ+,AQ+}-----------0.40109-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{TT+,AQ+}-----------0.40282-------{77+,AJo+,ATs+}
{99+,AQ+}-----------0.44255-------{77+,AQo+,ATs+}
{88+,AQ+}-----------0.47505-------** always +cEV **

My best guess would be opening {88+,AQ+} and calling {JJ+,AK}, which would make cEV(shove TT) = -370.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting stuff.

I actually think that at M=14, a lot of players open a fair amount wider than {77+,AJo+,ATs+}, but aren't calling much more than {TT+,AK}, so shoving could be somewhat +cEV if you can identify those opponents.

And against an apestyled player who opens reasonably wide and calls their entire range, shoving is the move.