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Old 10-28-2007, 12:30 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
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Default Re: thoughts on 3betting when you have 30-50bbs

Let's look at this problem mathematically. 33 is 46% against a top 25% hand. If you flat call, you are getting 2-1 pot odds, assuming 1xBB in ante, and you play the hand in position. Sometimes the blinds overcall or reraise/squeeze. This seems like a marginally favorable situation if you are comfortable playing 33 with shallow money.

If you reraise/fold, you risk 7-8xBB to pick up a 5xBB pot. What do you do if you get flat called and miss your set? This approach may not be cEV-.

Once you reraise, it folding to a 4-bet the correct play? You are putting in about 38% of the money to a push. 33 is 38% against a top 8% hand, which would assume villain pushes 1/3 of the time. The fact that the decision is close is an argument for not reraising.

Incidently my calculations show a 3-bet overbet push is maybe very slightly cEV+. You get called about 30% of the time by raiser or the blinds and you are about 33% to win if called. Your expected loss if called is about twice your gain if you steal, so it is a very close big gamble.

I think reraise/fold is popular because it avoids difficult decisions and minimizes the chances of busting out. If you are going to reraise, reraise/call is probably slightly better. The overbet push gets more folds, but with a reraise/call strategy, you get away from the hand when there are 2 allins in front of you or something.
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