Re: TT vs. WhoooooohKid
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Shoving is just -cEV for relatively wide UTG raising range of 55+,AK,AQ,AJs ...
shove called & win = 4390
shove called & lose = 4090
shove fold win = 800
UTG calling range:
AK 8
JJ+ 4 * 6 = 24
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.654% 33.45% 00.20% 22911950 138060.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 66.346% 66.14% 00.20% 45304090 138060.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
UTG raise range:
55+ 10 * 6 = 60
AK AQ 2 * 8 = 16
AJs 4
BB shove equity:
(32/80) * (.33654 * 4390 - .66346 * 4090) + (48/80) * 800 =
(32/80) * (-1246) + (48/80) * 800 =
.4 * (-1246) + .6 * 800 =
-498 + 480 = -18
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The raising range you gave was much looser than that!
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Do you mean the UTG raising range that I gave for myself in an earlier post? Any pair, AJ+, A8s+, KQ, KJs, KTs, T9s+ ? That was to show that hero shoving AKQ AKJ AQJ KQJ boards was equity neutral for a very wide villain UTG raising range.
That was before the big debate as to whether Bakes would open muck 88, implying a consensus for a much narrower range than my range. Bakes said he wouldn't open muck 88 and you said you put him as low as 55+, so I fiddled until I found a range right at the equity neutral crossover point for calling a pre-flop shove.
Is 55+ AQ+ AJs wide/narrow for Bakes ? I don't know and I can't ask him b/c he has me on ignore.
If anything, this thread has shown that it's better to crunch some preliminary calcs before getting into a big debate.
55+ AQ+ AJs with a calling range of JJ+ AK seems to me to be a reasonable equity-neutral starting place for figuring a realistic range for a Bakes-esque villain.
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I had Bakes opening a bit looser than that for my calcs, but I was trying to err on the side of looseness so that it would resoundingly prove that pushing TT was probably not the best plan. But maybe I only added KQs and QJs to the range.
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