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Old 10-27-2007, 03:22 AM
John Ryan John Ryan is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 22
Default Re: PL: Turned nut flush faces board pair on river

Looking at the texture of the board and given the limits you are playing (i.e. the assumed skill level of your opponents) I really don't think you're in that bad of shape. KK, JJ, and 88 have to raise the flop, probably KJ too, (there's too many draws just to smooth call) so we can assume the cutoff has none of those hands. As for MP2, they raised preflop, which is much more emblematic of an AA2 type of hand which could play this exactly the way they did. Also, I think if they flopped a set along w/ A2 for example, they'd bet more than 1/4 the pot w/ both flush draws and straight draws present. It looks more like a scared one pair bet, hoping to take a pot down easy than a big hand. On the river, I think more often than you think you're gonna run into busted low draws and weaker flushes here. The only hand you really might be nervous about is XXJ8, but I don't fear it that much. I check the river, b/c betting doesn't really gain you much, but I might not be disinclined to calling a bet if it emerges. FWIW, I like your smaller turn bet, though it could be larger maybe 1.50ish, you have more than enough hand to make a value bet here, so your chief concern shouldn't be trying to price people out. It's not a bad situation to hope for some customers.

Extra Crap:

1 - The small bet/fold line isn't too bad, but I think you can catch a bluff/retarded river bet here more often by checking and gain a little more value that way, but a healthy mix is also good.

2 - See previous answer. Trust me, smaller stakes inducing bluffs is a powerful tool. Idiots will fire just about as often as you let them when they bust a draw.

3 - Non-maniac bet/call seems a little silly, b/c what does a non-maniac raise you with here?

I like the flop play, you got a piece, but I prefer to keep it small and make my plays after this hand develops a little bit. Pot control is critical in PL games.
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