Re: 1/2 A9
If CO has an 8% PFR, let's say he opens up to 10% in the CO. His range is then in the neighborhood of 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo. Vs that range, you have about 36% equity unless you (1) fold him out immediately preflop with this squeeze reraise, or (2) you can expect a lot of help from fold equity on the flop. Unfortunately, I don't think you can rely on (1) too much given that he has position and most of the hands in his range will probably call your reraise to see a flop. And (2), your fold equity would have been higher if you made a continuation bet on the flop. I think you should have fired at the flop.
All things considered, I think folding preflop instead of using A9o to squeeze the CO would have been much better.
However, having reraised preflop and checked the flop, once he checks the flop behind only to call your delayed cb on the turn, then I think he most likely has a pair JJ or lower, or else some draw that he doesn't want to let go even when the board paired (making him think you are less likely to have a Q). So, once your delayed cb gets called, given his likely range of a pair JJ or lower or a draw, I think your river push should get him off his low pairs and missed draws often enough to show a profit. Of course, JJ is consistent with his play, but if he has that it's just bad luck for you.
|