[sharpyetblunt]

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For instance:
If you're approaching the bubble in a 180(my favorite tourney), do notes help you to determine whether to call when shoved to you? Is it REALLY just a guessing game?

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you have to determine whether you are ahead of your opponents range or not. Is the player loose? has he been playing a lot of hands, what hands has he shown down? take notes when you see him shove with small pocket pairs, or anything to help you determine what kind of hands he would do this with. Then decide if your hand is ahead of most of what he would shove with. Or if you really want to make the money then wait for a better spot. Of course the bubble is a good time to amass chips though as everyone gets tighter.