[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
"The only ace/boat he can play this way is AQ or QQ. Compare this with all the draws that missed and there's NO way I can fold."

All the draws?
You mean the flush draws.
The flush draws that failed to raise on the flop.
The flush draws that payed off a close-to-pot bet on the turn with a paired board.
The flush draws that bluffed what seems to be another flush draw with a giant bet.

Everything makes sence for a boat and not at all for something else.
Yet another thing to have in mind is that according to game theory he should bet bigger with better hands and we should call with better hands in bigger pots. Big pots, big hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so lets analyze this. He's a 22/13 player, so he's probably reraising AK, maybe AQ but I doubt it. And he's calling down to probably A8. We beat A8, AT, and AJ. We lose to AQ and A9. So we automatically assume when he overpots it that he KNOWS we have AK and he's valuetowning us with a boat? 77 doesn't make sense (raise flop or turn or something), 99 doesn't make sense (folds flop).

So we put him on the ONE hand in his range (AQ) and we fold?