[krishan]

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I spoke with with Chris Glynn for a few minutes today and this is what I found out:

1. No update on the refinance, but here is the scenario he believes most likely: Refinance the $165M of 10.75% notes at 8.75% late this year or early next year. This would add $0.17 per share and is accounted for in his $1.05 08 EPS estimate. I was surprised at 8.75% because they walked away from 9% this summer. He did not know they walked away from 9% and asked me my source. I said Scorpion Man from the internets, LDO [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

2. He said the same thing as SM about being light for Q3. (SM - Did you heard that from Ed? I've heard this now from 3 different sources so I don't think it's a guess.) So for anyone looking to buy (James?) I would wait until after the 3Q earnings release. Glynn said $4 is a distinct possiblity if they do indeed miss significantly. But he also said there's no threat of BK.


3. The good news. He doesn't have a price target published but thinks $20-25 is "rational". It's just a matter of time. Refi + top line growth = triple. At first I thought this $1.05E doesn't match up with $20+, but looking at the industry, a P/E of 15.5 is average (and I've read analysts lean to conservatism to keep their jobs; direction is more important than magnitude)

So really nothing too new here, just confirmation of a lot of what SM and Krishan have posted.

Lastly, he agreed that the California fires could be significant for commercial sales (180 buildings damaged/destroyed according to Reuters this afternoon).

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First you are the man. Second, I'm going to kill myself if this goes to 4.

Krishan