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Old 10-26-2007, 03:50 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Wookie is right
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Default Re: Ugly A7 shorthanded, plz evaluate/berate

Hi, Vinnie!

If this:

[ QUOTE ]
I've recently decided I want to get serious about poker, and make a concerted effort to really improve my game.

[/ QUOTE ]

is true, step one can be to remove the words "I think", "highly likely" and "I believe" from this:

[ QUOTE ]
I think Rob is counting 18 outs or so, and if you discount a few of those (Aces might give somebody the straight), it's still highly likely you'll end up around 12 or 13 outs, which I believe is better than 3:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are calculations you have to know how to do, and have confidence in them. Not trying to berate you, particularly, but if you're equivocal around here you'll be eaten alive.

As to your question, the problem with the bet is one of ranges. Hero just got called in two places on a 3-flush flop, and because of the way the board looks there really aren't too many WORSE hands that will call a bet (e.g. if the board were 7s5s2s you could be getting called by a hand like Ks5x), and there are a lot of better hands (5s4s) that are a) taking away your outs, b) not going to let you off the hook by raising, and c) not going to fold for you. Plus there's a third hand in the mix that probably has at least a better pair but is afraid of the flush.

So, on the one hand you can't count on having full equity on your draw, and on the other hand you are almost certainly drawing, and on somebody else's third hand you really don't want to pay more than one bet to see the river. Ergo, check and see.
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