Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
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any thoughts on a round-robin with this 6pt teaser combo?
Colts -7 at Panthers
Raiders at Titans -7.5
Patriots at Redskins +16
don't really like betting against NE obviously, but getting 22 points at home going across 17 and 21 can't be wrong can it?
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Well it is wrong if you define -EV as "wrong". The only time teasing 6 points is +EV is if by teasing the game you CHANGE the outcome >20-22% of the time. If you think WAS +16 has good value, bet that don't tease it.
Put another way, they only time teasing from +16 to +22 is a good bet is if NE wins by EXACTLY 17-22 over 21% of the time (since you need to hit the teaser leg ~72% of the time and if NE doesn't win by 16 or more 50% of the time, you should have simply taken WAS +16).
That was a long-winded answer, but does that make sense to you?
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