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Old 10-26-2007, 01:31 PM
rufus rufus is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 425
Default Re: Townsend range calculations article question

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Deep stacked here I think I would most likely just call the 45BB even if I am sure I have over 50% equity.

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It depends on situation. It's possible to have scenarios (primarily draw hands) where the all-in equity is much higher than the expected equity on the turn. Consider, for example, a draw with 17 outs. All-in gets you about 60%, but you've only got a 36% chance to hit on the turn, and if you miss a 37% chance on the river. A maniac can push you out of the pot on the turn if you just call.

Now, in the example there is equity from pairing the ace, hitting the flush, and the backdoor straight, but missing the turn is unlikely to push the equity below 50% -- but it's still better to get the money in on the flop. Stack sizes should be considered, but all-in is certainly a reasonable option here at just about any stack size, and the best choice for smaller ones.

Notably, this issue of getting pushed out is a real concern in the middle case where the showdown equity is 46% - most of which is coming from the 13 outs to hit the flush, pair the ace, or hit the back-door straight. If the villain fires the other barrel on the turn provided the board doesn't show a third heart or pair the ace, you might not even see the river, and this can bring the effective equity down to around 23% depending on stack sizes. As a consequence, this second scenario is (depending on stack sizes) a good situation to consider going all in.
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