Re: I river trips and see no reason to call
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for me the most interesting decision here is the turn.
at first glance, i don't like the turn bet. if you didn't have the monster redraw i would agree with it because we can b/f. a high % of the time he's either folding or raising, i think and a free card sure wouldn't hurt us. the biggest drawback is that when a bet goes in(being that he's sort of passive) you are probably in worse shape than when you bet it yourself.
if i did bet/call the turn i would check/fold the river as you did.
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if i c/c turn am i c/folding all non Q, non diamond, non J rivers?
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against all but the most passive players, we can probably spend two big bets on the turn/river and showdown UI. when you show weakness by checking the turn, you expand the range against alot of typical(even semipassive) players and likely have enough hand to see it to the end.
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using this logic, then, why not bet the turn? if im seeing a showdown for 2 BB, then I call b/c turn and fold river UI, or C/C 2 streets. and I still get value from QJ.
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After 3banging the flop I think weakness is shown by calling the turn rather than r/r. Not advocating a r/r, mind you. But from villain's perspective he has to know OP doesn't have a flush. If he's passive and raised the flop I'd rather c/c the turn and fold the river without seeing another [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villain has either a straight or a flush, and if he's paying attention he's putting you on no better than a set on the turn.
Sometimes value is so thin that it's actually value for the opponent.
For me, the really interesting question is whether you could make a play for the pot on the river against our passive villain once the board pairs queens.
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