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Old 10-26-2007, 12:15 PM
Dunkman Dunkman is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Bubbling FTs
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Default Re: 99 raise or shove?

I think playing for set value could possibly have a slightly higher chip expectation than shoving PF, but shoving PF has much much much lower variance, and with a 26 BB stack we need chips now. That's one thing you're looking for in tournaments, not the 1 in 10 play that wins a monster pot, but plays that consistently pick up chips so you can go deep on a regular basis. With the pot equal to 25% of our stack I'd jam this all day.

Actually I gave playing for set value way too much credit. Lets say every time you hit a set you stack someone. Still, you're winning 125% of your stack 1 time in 9, where as shoving nets you 25% like every time, and I'd argue it nets you even more when you get called because your hand is so far ahead of their ranges. Shoving has a lower variance and a cEV that far exceeds checking, it is clearly the best play.
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