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I like your play on all streets here. (Ok, preflop is little thin)
For those saying bet/fold turn, what range are you giving villain to CR turn? We have 5 outs a significant portion of the time and we're getting 9.25:1, with the opportunity to get in two bets pretty much always on the river if we improve. Close to a call and fold river UI no? Or do we think villain has KQ or a set a lot?
Also, a hypothetical:
Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (
6 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.
Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (
8.5SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.
Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (
6.25BB, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.
River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (
6.25BB, 2 players)
SB bets, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>
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call
Board: 5d Qs 7h Ks Ac
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.167% 29.17% 00.00% 21 0.00 { Qd9d }
Hand 1: 70.833% 70.83% 00.00% 51 0.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
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a) His range isnt that tight
b) Discount Qx and KK+ as villain will 3-bet these on the flop with non-zero probability
c) Discount lower pp's as it isnt everyone who will turn these hands into a bluff.
The decision on the river is much closer than suggested by that stove. You are basically hoping he turns lower pp's into a bluff which I dont see happeing very often. (But i dont play that game)