[Sardine]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's work out the numbers. We are 4.5:1 to make our draw right. If he folds 25% of the time we get $16 and calls the other 75%. In 100 identical situations let's say villain folds 25 times to a 3-bet of $25. The other 75 times villain calls our 3-bet we will make our draw 13 times (and lose 62 times. So I believe the math would look like (25 x $16)+(13 x $58)-(62 x $25) = -396. AC

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the math in the last 2 terms are incorrect. The math should be:
=0.25*16+0.75*0.13*(24+implied bet say 15) + 0.75*0.87*(-8)
=2.58 profit

when you are making decision to call, you loose $8 call, not whole pot, the pot is sunken cost.

similarly the last 2 terms are composed as follows:
Prob [V calls] * Prob [u hit or miss ] * [money won or bet lost]

clearer?