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Old 10-25-2007, 09:31 PM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 10,145
Default Re: 86s OTB on wet board

Well, here we see the hazards of cold-calling with the 86s in the first place (I'm not saying you should never do it, but it does have its hazards -- I mean, you flopped pretty damn well here, and I'm still not thrilled about the situation).

So . . . I'd imagine an immediate raise will take down the pot immediately a decent chunk of the time, with the problem of course being that a raise to even just $20 (barely more than a min-raise) commits you in a spot where, if you face a push, you have to call as probably something like a 7:3 dog (or maybe a little worse). Even if we just get called, we're still investing a big chunk of our stack as a dog, with dubious folding equity later in the hand.

Meanwhile, versus a hand you were about 50/50 with anyway (UI high cards), you will probably get a fold, and there's a decent chance you'll drive out a hand like TT too. But you are basically giving odds on your semibluff.

A semibluff-call is another option, and I think maybe it's the way to go. That way, you can try representing spades if one falls on the turn and Villain checks, and also your hand is nicely disguised so that if your actual draw does hit and Villain also has a hand, you're probably getting paid.

You'll lose the pot more often this way (versus an immediate raise), but unless Villain is a habitual 2-barreler postflop, you're are going to have more information on the turn, and that seems to me like a better time to decide how much you want to invest in the hand.
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