[private joker]

I'm just speaking from my experience at the Bellagio 15. Admittedly I'm exaggerating my pessimism about our hand, but it's just to combat a prevailing instinct to pick lines like raising rivers and folding to 3-bets. These lines might be better in online or high stakes games, but at 15/30 live, it's an easy and standard call I think. (I'm not even going to address the metagame benefits of calling here over raise/folding).

First of all, I can't remember the last time someone paid off a river raise on a 4-flush board with the 8-trump. Especially someone who has been described as TAG and doing nothing incredibly stupid. So I don't see the value in raising -- it will invite either a fold or a 3-bet, both of which suck for us.

Secondly, through experience, live tight-and-somewhat-aggressive players seem to adore check-calling the turn and leading the river with the nut flush. I've seen it so often that the betting pattern in this hand screams K-high flush to me. At Commerce they'll try a checkraise on this river sometimes if they're a tricky player, but at Bellagio they just donk it. I could be wrong, but I'm not crazy about our chances here.