[Sherman]

So with the antes now included we need ~44.4% equity to break even.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 15347135 7476961.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 26204975 7476961.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }


Looks like a fold to me.

FWIW, I think I'd actually fold in this spot (or at least I am telling myself I would) if I were getting 44-45% equity (about break even).

Here is why:

There are 23 players left in this tournament. We are getting closer and closer to the point where survival (just have 1 chip) means lots and lots more money.

But let's ignore that point for a minute b/c we aren't quite there yet.

Let's answer this set of questions instead:

1) How successful have I been at stealing the blinds uncontested?

2) How good are my remaining opponents?

3) Are they aggressive or nitty?

4) What is the functional utility of my present stack?

5) How much functional utility do I expect to gain by doubling up here?


Depending on the answers to these questions, I think we might have to strongly consider folding. If we are not really having any trouble stealing blinds and there is no serious functional chip utility gain by doubling here, I really don't think we should risk it.

Now I know what many of your regulars are thinking. WTF. How can we pass up a +cEV spot? And WTF, Sherman NEVER folds AK PF, how can he seriously think about doing it here? WellI agree with you. If this were the first hand of the tournament, I am never hesitating to move all in. But at this point of the MTT, $EV is starting to diverge from cEV. And even if we do double up, how much does our $EV increase? It certainly doesn't double. How much $EV do we lose if we bust here?

I don't have the answers to all these questions, but I do believe that in very close spots, when you are very deep in an MTT, you have to consider that sometimes the best play for a particular hand (in a vacuum) isn't the best play for the tournament.

I honestly think this may be one of those spots. I just don't think we gain a whole lot by doubling and that on average we lose more by busting than we gain by doubling (depending on other tournament dynamics: i.e. are we the best player, are the players folding a lot, etc.).

Beyond that, the math above indicates that we should fold here anwyhow.

Sherman