Re: Variance is Fractal
Variance is a meaningless term in poker. We talk about variance, but we are all talking about the variances of different things.
Some of us are talking about the variance of luck with the cards - which is actually very low. Some of us are talking about the variance of opponents.
For instance, pretend there is a player who does fairly poorly against 90% of players, but his strategy tends to get huge payoffs against a certain type of player. He will show high "variance." His luck (with the cards) isn't having any variance, what were measuring here is his luck finding suitable opponents.
Add to the fact that opponents adapt to your style over long periods, you have to ask what your trying to measure? Luck, opponents, adaptation of opponents...etc.
Keep in mind that variance is also function of our individual strategies. I can be a very consistent loser if I wanted to be; I am a very consistent winner also when I want to be; but when I try to push my edge...that's often when I experience my so called variance.
I can measure all these things. But when we talk about variance, meaningfully, we need a more precise definition of what we are trying to measure that varies....
P.s. lets stop using hyperbolic words like fractals...and other gibberish... Speak to be understood.
----_Dirty&Litgious_----
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