Re: Pirateboy\'s NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9
Here is an example to help:
Utah State is a 2.5 point underdog at home. Historically, home teams getting up to 2.5 points win 48.2% of the time, thus you'd need +108 odds to break even on the ML. You can get Utah State at +120 right now on Bookmaker, giving you a positive EV on the play.
SMU is a 13.5 road dog, and road dogs of 10-13.5 have a 22.2% win rate, so you'd need +351 on the ML. SMU is at +425 at Bookmaker, so nice edge there.
An example of a negative EV play would be UTEP at home as a 4 point dog. They win at 37.1%, meaning you need +170 to break even. UTEP is at +150, so it's a negative expectation.
Hope that helps.
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